| |
When conflicting information is received it can be very difficult to decide which is giving the true picture - can a month really make so much difference?
In a report looking at the picture for house prices in December the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors stated that falling prices had been claimed by the highest number of estate agents since 1992 - 300 out of a total of 500 questioned. Home Information Packs have received a share of the blame in that many owners who would have put a house on the market to 'test the water' and maybe subsequently sold the property, have been deterred by the need to buy the pack. However, the more usual blame is aimed at interest rates - one agent is quoted as saying that the interest rate needed to come down early in 2008 or "the country can expect a bleak time for the next two to five years". Well that could happen, with another base rate reduction expected during February, but for how long will that suffice?
The next report comes from the Halifax bank - it tells us that in January there was no change in prices from the previous month, but that, despite this, the annual rate of increase stood at 4.5%. When this information comes from the country's biggest mortgage lender it has to be accepted, although whether it represents a temporary blip in the recent large increases or a sign of harder times is open to conjecture; The chief economist for the Halifax went on record to forecast flat house prices in 2008. This may well be subject to their expectation of two interest rate cuts in the year, which they say should support the housing market and prevent a sharp slowing in the economy.
In a similar vein, Nationwide recorded a fall of 0.1% in January prices; the combined Halifax /Nationwide figures were interpreted by Howard Archer of Global Insight as significant cooling but not a dramatic fall, whilst Capital Economics expect any pause to be short-lived followed by further falls during the year.
|
|